Judgmental Adjustments to the Forecast
Uncategorized
682 views
Uncategorized
682 views

Judgmental Adjustments to the Forecast

mvgilliland - August 21, 2015

So you think you can outsmart your statistical forecast? Apparently, lots of people do. So you think you can outsmart your statistical forecast? Apparently, lots of people…

Uncategorized
869 views

Multistage Modeling with SAS Forecast Server Client (Part 1)

mvgilliland - August 14, 2015

Pu Wang is a Sr. Research Statistician in SAS R&D, and has contributed this post on multistage modeling in the new SAS Forecast Server web client. Pu…

How to Solve a Difficult Forecasting Problem
Uncategorized
788 views
Uncategorized
788 views

How to Solve a Difficult Forecasting Problem

mvgilliland - May 3, 2015

The Boulder, The Cliff, and The BabyImagine you are faced with this very urgent problem: A large boulder is teetering on the edge of a cliff, at…

Big Data
677 views

Don’t Fine Tune Your Forecast!

mvgilliland - March 6, 2015

Does your forecast look like a radio? No? Then don't treat it like one.A radio's tuning knob serves a valid purpose. It lets you make fine adjustments, improving…

Analytics
1198 views

ATM Replenishment: Forecasting and Optimization

mvgilliland - January 25, 2015

Why do people steal ATMs? Because that's where the money is!!! Why do people steal ATMs? Because that's where the money is!!!While the old "smash-n-grab" remains a favorite modus…

Analytics
732 views

Interview with Jonathon Karelse, Co-Founder of NorthFind Partners

mvgilliland - January 17, 2015

Jonathon Karelse Jonathon KarelseIn December the Institute of Business Forecasting published the first of a new blog series on Forecast Value Added. Each month I will be…

Alfred Hitchcock and a Classic Forecasting Scam
Predictive Analytics
546 views
Predictive Analytics
546 views

Alfred Hitchcock and a Classic Forecasting Scam

mvgilliland - December 15, 2014

The Forecasting SavantSuppose you received an email from a self-proclaimed forecasting savant, advising you of a big upset in the upcoming mayoral election...and it turns out to be…

Best Practices
623 views

Gaming the Forecast

mvgilliland - November 24, 2014

Business forecasting is a highly politicized process, subject to the biases and personal agendas of all forecasting process participants. This is why many -- perhaps most --…

Uncategorized
1392 views

The Miracle of Combining Forecasts

mvgilliland - February 16, 2014

Life gifts us very few miracles. So when a miracle happens, we must be prepared to embrace it, and appreciate its worth. Winter Storm Pax Life gifts us very…

Predictive Analytics
765 views

The “Avoidability” of Forecast Error [PART 2]

mvgilliland - August 8, 2013

While I've long advocated the use of Coefficient of Variation (CV) as a quick and dirty indicator of the forecastability of a time-series, its deficiencies are well…