So you think you can outsmart your statistical forecast? Apparently, lots of people do. So you think you can outsmart your statistical forecast? Apparently, lots of people…
Pu Wang is a Sr. Research Statistician in SAS R&D, and has contributed this post on multistage modeling in the new SAS Forecast Server web client. Pu…
The Boulder, The Cliff, and The BabyImagine you are faced with this very urgent problem: A large boulder is teetering on the edge of a cliff, at…
Does your forecast look like a radio? No? Then don't treat it like one.A radio's tuning knob serves a valid purpose. It lets you make fine adjustments, improving…
Why do people steal ATMs? Because that's where the money is!!! Why do people steal ATMs? Because that's where the money is!!!While the old "smash-n-grab" remains a favorite modus…
Jonathon Karelse Jonathon KarelseIn December the Institute of Business Forecasting published the first of a new blog series on Forecast Value Added. Each month I will be…
The Forecasting SavantSuppose you received an email from a self-proclaimed forecasting savant, advising you of a big upset in the upcoming mayoral election...and it turns out to be…
Business forecasting is a highly politicized process, subject to the biases and personal agendas of all forecasting process participants. This is why many -- perhaps most --…
In 1947, in New York City, there was the Miracle on 34th Street. In 1980, at the Winter Olympics, there was the miracle on ice. In 1992,…
While I've long advocated the use of Coefficient of Variation (CV) as a quick and dirty indicator of the forecastability of a time-series, its deficiencies are well…
