Predictive Analytics
1019 views

The “Avoidability” of Forecast Error

mvgilliland - August 6, 2013

"Forecastability" is a frequent topic of discussion on The BFD, and an essential consideration when evaluating the effectiveness of any forecasting process. A major critique of forecasting…

Analytics
1226 views

One-Number Forecasting: A New Worst Practice?

mvgilliland - April 3, 2013

The one-number forecasting concept has been debated for years.Advocates argue that having different groups within the same organization working to different forecasts is insane. You can't have…

Forecasting the Stock Market: Lessons Learned
Analytics
1501 views
Analytics
1501 views

Forecasting the Stock Market: Lessons Learned

mvgilliland - March 12, 2013

There is a well recognized phenomenon that combining forecasts, derived from different methods using different sources of information, can improve forecast accuracy. This approach, sometimes called "ensemble…

Forecasting Is Harder Than It Looks
Predictive Analytics
1029 views
Predictive Analytics
1029 views

Forecasting Is Harder Than It Looks

mvgilliland - February 7, 2013

Want to make weather forecasting look good? Want to make weather forecasting look good? Compare it to predicting the economy. So concludes an ABC News Australia story by…

Collaborative Data
1061 views

Simple Methods and Ensemble Forecasting of Elections

mvgilliland - November 9, 2012

Two enduring principles of forecasting are that simple methods can work as well as fancy methods, and that combining (averaging)  forecasts, also known as "ensemble forecasting," will…

Predictive Analytics
1100 views

The Predictive Power of Nonsense

mvgilliland - November 7, 2012

The 2012 US Presidential race comes to a close today (thankfully), and there is no shortage of wacky indicators predicting the winner: The 2012 US Presidential race…

Predictive Analytics
1047 views

Guest Blogger: Len Tashman Previews Fall 2012 Issue of Foresight

mvgilliland - November 6, 2012

Editor Len Tashman's Preview of ForesightThe importance of Editor Len Tashman's Preview of ForesightThe importance of trust in the dissemination of forecasts through an organization cannot be…

Predictive Analytics
803 views

Could You Be POTUS?

mvgilliland - September 28, 2012

Business forecasting is a dismal field of endeavor, fit for dismal people like myself. In an attempt to make this field interesting to people who aren't so dismal…

Predictive Analytics
1066 views

More on Forecasting Benchmarks

mvgilliland - August 27, 2012

The Perils RevisitedA few posts ago I warned of the perils of forecasting benchmarks, and why they should not be used to set your forecasting performance objectives:…

Analytics
1100 views

Forecasting Olympic Medals

mvgilliland - July 16, 2012

The 2012 Summer Olympics in London are just around the corner, and it's sure to be an exciting time for all. I had the good fortune to…