Alfred Hitchcock and a Classic Forecasting Scam

December 15, 2014

The Forecasting Savant

Suppose you received an email from a self-proclaimed forecasting savant, advising you of a big upset in the upcoming mayoral election…and it turns out to be correct.

You then get an email picking the underdog in the next championship boxing match…which is right again.

Over the course of a few weeks you receive four more such emails, predicting outcomes that turn out to be true.