Cookies help us display personalized product recommendations and ensure you have great shopping experience.

By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept
SmartData CollectiveSmartData Collective
  • Analytics
    AnalyticsShow More
    sales and data analytics
    How Data Analytics Improves Lead Management and Sales Results
    9 Min Read
    data analytics and truck accident claims
    How Data Analytics Reduces Truck Accidents and Speeds Up Claims
    7 Min Read
    predictive analytics for interior designers
    Interior Designers Boost Profits with Predictive Analytics
    8 Min Read
    image fx (67)
    Improving LinkedIn Ad Strategies with Data Analytics
    9 Min Read
    big data and remote work
    Data Helps Speech-Language Pathologists Deliver Better Results
    6 Min Read
  • Big Data
  • BI
  • Exclusive
  • IT
  • Marketing
  • Software
Search
© 2008-25 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
Reading: Judgmental Adjustments to the Forecast
Share
Notification
Font ResizerAa
SmartData CollectiveSmartData Collective
Font ResizerAa
Search
  • About
  • Help
  • Privacy
Follow US
© 2008-23 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
SmartData Collective > Uncategorized > Judgmental Adjustments to the Forecast
Uncategorized

Judgmental Adjustments to the Forecast

mvgilliland
mvgilliland
4 Min Read
Image
SHARE

ImageSo you think you can outsmart your statistical forecast? Apparently, lots of people do.

Contents
Do You Have a Good Reason?A Simple Test

ImageSo you think you can outsmart your statistical forecast? Apparently, lots of people do.

In “Judgmental Adjustments to Forecasts in the New Economy” (Foresight, Issue 38 (Summer 2015), 31-36), Manzoor Chowdhury and Sonia Manzoor argue that forecasters are becoming more dependent on judgmental adjustments to a statistical forecast.

Sometimes this is because there isn’t sufficient data to generate trustworthy statistical forecast. For example, there may be no history for a new item, or limited history for items with a short product lifecycle. Or volume may be fragmented across complex and interconnected distribution channels. Or the immediate impact of social media (favorable or unfavorable) cannot be reliably determined.

More Read

Steve Jobs, 1955-2011
Forget outsourcing, it’s all about co-learning these days
This is not a corporate blog
Speaking at Social Media Club on SEO + SMO
A Uniquely Cincinnati Alternate Use Case

Of course, the old standby reason for judgmental adjustments is when the statistical forecast does not meet the expectations of management. Executives may have “propriety information” they can’t share with the forecasters, so it cannot be included in the statistical models. Or they may be (mis-)using the forecast as a target or stretch goal (instead of what the forecast should be — a “best guess” at what is really going to happen).

Do You Have a Good Reason?

Does your boss (or higher level management) make you adjust the forecast? If so, that is probably a good enough reason to do so. But if they insist you make small adjustments, consider pushing back with the question, “What is the consequence of this adjustment — will it change any decisions?”

Even if directionally correct, a small adjustment that results in no change of actions is a waste of everyone’s time.

A large adjustment, presumably, will result in different decisions, plans, and actions. But will it result in better decisions, plans, and actions? In a study of four supply chain companies, Fildes and Goodwin (“Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting,” Foresight, Issue 8 (Fall 2007), 5-10) found that any benefits to judgmental adjustments are “largely negated by excessive intervention and over-optimism.” In their sample, negative adjustments (lowering the forecast) tended to improve accuracy more than positive adjustments.

A Simple Test

As a simple test of your forecasting abilities, it should be easy to determine whether your adjustments are at least directionally correct.

Take a look at your historical forecasting performance data. (Every organization should be recording, at the very least,  the statistical forecast (generated by the forecasting software) and the final forecast (after adjustments and management approval), to compare to the actual that occurred. Much better is to also record the forecast at each sequential step in the forecasting process, such as statistical forecast, forecaster’s adjustment, consensus adjustment, and final (management approved) forecast.)

What percentage of the adjustments were directionally correct? If more than half then congratulations — you are doing better than flipping a coin!

Warning: Just be aware that you can make a directionally correct adjustment and still make the forecast worse. For example, statistical forecast=100, adjusted forecast=110, actual=101.

If you don’t keep or have access to historical data on your forecasts and actuals, then test yourself this way: Every morning before the opening bell, predict whether the Dow Jones Industrial Average (or your own favorite stock or stock market index) will end higher or lower than the previous day. It may not be as easy as you think.

Share This Article
Facebook Pinterest LinkedIn
Share

Follow us on Facebook

Latest News

sales and data analytics
How Data Analytics Improves Lead Management and Sales Results
Analytics Big Data Exclusive
ai in marketing
How AI and Smart Platforms Improve Email Marketing
Artificial Intelligence Exclusive Marketing
AI Document Verification for Legal Firms: Importance & Top Tools
AI Document Verification for Legal Firms: Importance & Top Tools
Artificial Intelligence Exclusive
AI supply chain
AI Tools Are Strengthening Global Supply Chains
Artificial Intelligence Exclusive

Stay Connected

1.2kFollowersLike
33.7kFollowersFollow
222FollowersPin

You Might also Like

Cut Costs, Improve Experiences & Retain Customers

4 Min Read

MicroStrategy Raises the Ante on Mobile, Social and Cloud Innovation

8 Min Read

See you at PAW (Predictive Analytics World) and Teradata Partners

2 Min Read

Faux Viral Maketing

3 Min Read

SmartData Collective is one of the largest & trusted community covering technical content about Big Data, BI, Cloud, Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, IoT & more.

giveaway chatbots
How To Get An Award Winning Giveaway Bot
Big Data Chatbots Exclusive
ai in ecommerce
Artificial Intelligence for eCommerce: A Closer Look
Artificial Intelligence

Quick Link

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy
Follow US
© 2008-25 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
Go to mobile version
Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Username or Email Address
Password

Lost your password?