Simple Methods and Ensemble Forecasting of Elections

November 9, 2012
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Two enduring principles of forecasting are that simple methods can work as well as fancy methods, and that combining (averaging)  forecasts, also known as “ensemble forecasting,” will usually result in more accurate predictions than the individual methods being averaged. We saw a good demonstration of these principles in Tuesday’s election forecasts by Nate Silver on his FiveThirtyEight blog, and PollyVote.com. But let me digress…(more…)