Could You Be POTUS?

September 28, 2012
15 Views

Business forecasting is a dismal field of endeavor, fit for dismal people like myself. In an attempt to make this field interesting to people who aren’t so dismal by nature, our friends at PollyVote Election Forecasting ask the question:

Could you be President of the United States?

Business forecasting is a dismal field of endeavor, fit for dismal people like myself. In an attempt to make this field interesting to people who aren’t so dismal by nature, our friends at PollyVote Election Forecasting ask the question:

Could you be President of the United States?

The PollyVote project is run by Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzan, Andreas Graefe, and Randall Jones, who use it to demonstrate advances in forecasting methodology. PollyVote illustrates the principle of combining forecasts from different methods (e.g. averaging multiple polls) to achieve a more accurate result. Its current focus is on predicting the 2012 US presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

I’m not much interested in the topic of political predicting. However, I do care about my own chance of winning the presidential election, which is what you, too, can find out with their PollyBio test.

Let me warn you in advance that the test is kind of tricky. For example, question #3:

Are you the first born child in your family?

Really? How am I supposed to know whether anyone was born before me — I wasn’t around then! Plus, I was just a baby at the time. Or questions #9 and #10:

Are you a celebrity?

Are you athletic?

Of course, being a celebrity is a relative term. There are globally recognized celebrities, like Mother Teresa or Posh Spice. And there are those who achieved their 15 minutes of fame and then drifted back into irrelevance, like Tanning Mom or Joe the Plumber. What if you, like me, are somewhere in between?

As for being athletic, there is the same issue of relativity and interpretation. By athletic do they mean can I slam-dunk a basketball and run a 4-minute mile? Well by those strict conditions then no, I’m not athletic. But if by athletic they mean can I walk from my house to the curb to get my mail without breaking out in a sweat and panting? Then again, no.

Question #26 asks:

Are you more attractive than Barack Obama?

I’m not really sure of the relevance of this question. Being better looking than Barack Obama didn’t do anything for John Edwards other than get him more professional looking home-movies by his campaign cinematographer.

It turns out my predicted percentage of the 2012 popular vote is somewhere around 37%, which I thought was pretty good. However, if I consider myself an athletic celebrity who is more attractive than Barack Obama, I would capture 41% of the vote, so I’ll consider myself all those things.

 

tags: Barack Obama, business forecasting, election forecasting, Joe the Plumber, John Edwards, Mitt Romney, Mother Teresa, Pollyvote, Posh Spice, POTUS, Presidential Election, Scott Armstrong, tanning mom

You may be interested

Big Data is the Key to the Future of Multi-Device Marketing
Big Data
0 shares122 views
Big Data
0 shares122 views

Big Data is the Key to the Future of Multi-Device Marketing

Ryan Kh - May 26, 2017

Digital marketers must reach customers across multiple devices. According to Criteo Mobile eCommerce Report, 40% of all online transactions involve…

Empowering Partners and Customers with Data Insights: A Win-Win for Everyone
Analytics
0 shares237 views
Analytics
0 shares237 views

Empowering Partners and Customers with Data Insights: A Win-Win for Everyone

Guy Greenberg - May 26, 2017

All businesses in the digital age rely on analytics for various activities: Product managers rely on analytics to gain insights…

The State of US Cyber Security
IT
0 shares277 views1
IT
0 shares277 views1

The State of US Cyber Security

bcornell - May 25, 2017

During the first week of May 2017 President Donald Trump signed a cyber security executive order focusing on upgrading government…