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iowa electronic markets

Simple Methods and Ensemble Forecasting of Elections

November 9, 2012 by Michael Gilliland

Two enduring principles of forecasting are that simple methods can work as well as fancy methods, and that combining (averaging) forecasts, also known as "ensemble forecasting," will usually result in more accurate predictions than the individual methods being averaged.[read more]

The Predictive Power of Nonsense

November 7, 2012 by Michael Gilliland

Today we have Halloween masks, coffee cups, cookie sales, and winners of sporting events all being credited with forecasting ability. But if you search hard enough (and it won't even be that hard), you can always find perfect associations in history that have no predictive power.[read more]