Cookies help us display personalized product recommendations and ensure you have great shopping experience.

By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept
SmartData CollectiveSmartData Collective
  • Analytics
    AnalyticsShow More
    big data analytics in transporation
    Turning Data Into Decisions: How Analytics Improves Transportation Strategy
    3 Min Read
    sales and data analytics
    How Data Analytics Improves Lead Management and Sales Results
    9 Min Read
    data analytics and truck accident claims
    How Data Analytics Reduces Truck Accidents and Speeds Up Claims
    7 Min Read
    predictive analytics for interior designers
    Interior Designers Boost Profits with Predictive Analytics
    8 Min Read
    image fx (67)
    Improving LinkedIn Ad Strategies with Data Analytics
    9 Min Read
  • Big Data
  • BI
  • Exclusive
  • IT
  • Marketing
  • Software
Search
© 2008-25 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
Reading: Problems with the Language of Probability
Share
Notification
Font ResizerAa
SmartData CollectiveSmartData Collective
Font ResizerAa
Search
  • About
  • Help
  • Privacy
Follow US
© 2008-23 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
SmartData Collective > Data Management > Culture/Leadership > Problems with the Language of Probability
CommentaryCulture/LeadershipExclusiveRisk ManagementStatistics

Problems with the Language of Probability

paulbarsch
paulbarsch
5 Min Read
Image
SHARE

Image

Image

The language of probability to statisticians and most scientists is clear—they understand terms such as “correlation”, “statistically significant”, “confidence” and more. However, using probabilistic terminology to communicate the “likelihood” of an event occurring to those untrained in understanding such terms, can in some instances lead to the ruin of careers, companies and in worst cases—loss of life.

The “After Shocks” is a disturbing article on what some have called “science on trial”. In 2009, a swarm of small earthquakes hit L’Aquila, a small town in the mountains of Italy. This area in central Italy—much like those living near the San Andreas fault in California—is prone to continual earthquakes. In fact, over the centuries there have been tens of thousands of earthquakes in the area of L’Aquila with some having small effect and others killing hundreds of people.

More Read

Enterprise Architecture Still a Leap of Faith for Many Companies
4 Ways To Use Big Data To Monitor Competitors On Social Media
Wearable Tech in the Current Healthcare System
Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think
Can AI Help Create an Ideal Employee Compensation Package?

Citizens in L’Aquila constantly live with an underlying fear of “the big one”—an earthquake so big that it shakes buildings to their foundation. So when a series of tremors hit the area in 2009, citizens were keen to get answers to questions such as; “is the big one coming soon?” and “if so, should I be leaving my home?” With most of the homes in the L’Aquila area unenforced—and thus unable to defend against a sizeable earthquake—government authorities came to the rescue by convening a scientific panel to answer citizen questions.

What happened next is a travesty. According to the above article, one of the scientists, Enzo Boschi, examined the earthquake data and concluded; “a large earthquake along the lines of 1703 event (the last one that killed 10,000) is improbable in the short term, but the possibility cannot definitively be excluded.”

Let’s dissect the use of the word “improbable”. Most statisticians would define “improbable” equating to a low probability, but definitely not zero. It appears this is what Boschi meant when he used the term “improbable”.  As further evidence, notice how Boschi qualified his statement; “but the possibility cannot definitively be excluded”. However, the article notes that to the untrained—even worse, the media—improbable means “ain’t gonna happen”.

Long story, short: the small shakes in L’Aquila eventually led to the big one six days later. On April 6, 2009, cumulative probabilities caught up with L’Aquila, with a 6.3 magnitude earthquake killing 308 people.  After spending weeks digging through the rubble, enraged citizens brought a lawsuit against the scientists, accusing them of negligence in not adequately sizing the risks of a large earthquake. In 2012, the scientists were convicted of manslaughter, however in November 2014; they won their appeal and are now free from jail–but not free from the associated costs of their legal defense.

There are challenges in the language of probability. What do terms such as “unlikely”, “serious possibility”, “likely” and others actually mean? The trained scientist might know in his or her mind how they are defined, but does your typical business associate, much less your CEO understand?

Surely, when we have data we can make calculations to estimate the probability of an event. But what happens when we do not? Subjective probability statements—where we’re trying to measure belief—can also get us in trouble if we don’t agree on definitions, especially for events that have never occurred.

We should not eliminate the language of probability. Even though we really don’t know everything that can happen, we still have to run our businesses and predict what’s coming next. However, we must also remember that what is “likely” to us, may be deemed “unlikely” to another—especially if they have a pre-conceived notion in mind. We should also remember that sometimes the use of statistics and probability gives us the illusion of control, where in fact there is none.

As we communicate to those not trained in the language of probability, it is critical to couch our language with key qualifiers of “estimate”,  “educated guess”, “margin of error”, “rare does not mean impossible” and more. We should avoid generalizations and any language that could be misinterpreted as “a sure thing” or “no chance in heck”. Barring that, the best solution is to keep our expert opinions to ourselves.

 

TAGGED:risky business
Share This Article
Facebook Pinterest LinkedIn
Share

Follow us on Facebook

Latest News

big data analytics in transporation
Turning Data Into Decisions: How Analytics Improves Transportation Strategy
Analytics Big Data Exclusive
AI and fund manager software
AI And The Acceleration Of Information Flows From Fund Managers To Investors
Artificial Intelligence Exclusive
sales and data analytics
How Data Analytics Improves Lead Management and Sales Results
Analytics Big Data Exclusive
ai in marketing
How AI and Smart Platforms Improve Email Marketing
Artificial Intelligence Exclusive Marketing

Stay Connected

1.2kFollowersLike
33.7kFollowersFollow
222FollowersPin

You Might also Like

Image
AnalyticsCloud ComputingCommentaryData WarehousingExclusiveRisk Management

Building Information Technology Liquidity

4 Min Read
Image
AnalyticsBig DataExclusive

The Center of Analytics Success Takes on Communication Skills

4 Min Read
Image
AnalyticsCommentaryData MiningDecision ManagementExclusiveRisk ManagementStatisticsWorkforce AnalyticsWorkforce Data

Be Wary of the Science of Hiring

7 Min Read
Image
Uncategorized

Is Cloud Sameness Dangerous to Competitive Advantage?

5 Min Read

SmartData Collective is one of the largest & trusted community covering technical content about Big Data, BI, Cloud, Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, IoT & more.

ai chatbot
The Art of Conversation: Enhancing Chatbots with Advanced AI Prompts
Chatbots
giveaway chatbots
How To Get An Award Winning Giveaway Bot
Big Data Chatbots Exclusive

Quick Link

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy
Follow US
© 2008-25 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
Go to mobile version
Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Username or Email Address
Password

Lost your password?