Think “Conditions” When Estimating Probability

June 17, 2009
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coin flipOften in modeling any system from complex to basic, we think about the “assumptions” that underpin the model and call them out for critique.

What we often don’t think about is whether the conditions are the same, time and again, for the model. Specifically, does the model still hold as time marches on –as certainly nothing is static. Does “place” matter at all – does the model work well in one country vs another? Considering “conditions” as well as assumptions makes for understanding whether the output of the model is more or…

coin flipOften in modeling any system from complex to basic, we think about the “assumptions” that underpin the model and call them out for critique.

What we often don’t think about is whether the conditions are the same, time and again, for the model. Specifically, does the model still hold as time marches on –as certainly nothing is static. Does “place” matter at all – does the model work well in one country vs another? Considering “conditions” as well as assumptions makes for understanding whether the output of the model is more or less valid now than when previously used.

Special thanks to Wilmott Magazine for this little gem – found in article “Hidden Conditions and Coin Flip Blow Ups”.