Cookies help us display personalized product recommendations and ensure you have great shopping experience.

By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept
SmartData CollectiveSmartData Collective
  • Analytics
    AnalyticsShow More
    sales and data analytics
    How Data Analytics Improves Lead Management and Sales Results
    9 Min Read
    data analytics and truck accident claims
    How Data Analytics Reduces Truck Accidents and Speeds Up Claims
    7 Min Read
    predictive analytics for interior designers
    Interior Designers Boost Profits with Predictive Analytics
    8 Min Read
    image fx (67)
    Improving LinkedIn Ad Strategies with Data Analytics
    9 Min Read
    big data and remote work
    Data Helps Speech-Language Pathologists Deliver Better Results
    6 Min Read
  • Big Data
  • BI
  • Exclusive
  • IT
  • Marketing
  • Software
Search
© 2008-25 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
Reading: Yet another ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ success
Share
Notification
Font ResizerAa
SmartData CollectiveSmartData Collective
Font ResizerAa
Search
  • About
  • Help
  • Privacy
Follow US
© 2008-23 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
SmartData Collective > Analytics > Predictive Analytics > Yet another ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ success
Predictive AnalyticsStatistics

Yet another ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ success

DeanAbbott
DeanAbbott
3 Min Read
SHARE

I was at the Federal Building downtown San Diego for a consulting job, and met some representatives for a life and disability insurance company who were giving away a big-screen HD TV for the individual who came closest to guessing the number of M&Ms (chocolate and peanut butter filled) in a container. Because they do this often, I won’t show the specific container they use.

I was at the Federal Building downtown San Diego for a consulting job, and met some representatives for a life and disability insurance company who were giving away a big-screen HD TV for the individual who came closest to guessing the number of M&Ms (chocolate and peanut butter filled) in a container. Because they do this often, I won’t show the specific container they use.

I offered to make a guess of the total, but only if I could see all of the guesses so far. I was drawing from the Wisdom of Crowds example from Chapter 1 of the book where a set of independent guesses tend to outperform even an expert’s best guess. I’ve done the same experiment many times in data mining courses I’ve taught, and have found the same phenomenon.

I collected data from 77 individuals (including myself) shown here (sorted for convenience, but this makes no difference in the analysis):
37
625
772
784
875
888
903
929
983
987
1001
1015
1040
1080
1080
1124
1245
1250
1450
1500
1536
1596
1600
1774
1875
1929
1972
1976
1995
2000
2012
2033
2143
2150
2200
2221
2235
2251
2321
2331
2412
2500
2500
2550
2571
2599
2672
2714
2735
2777
2777
2803
2832
2873
2931
3001
3101
3250
3333
3362
3500
3500
3501
3501
3583
3661
3670
3697
3832
3872
4280
4700
4797
5205
5225
5257
9886
10000
187952

More Read

No single lever, by itself, will switch on the low carbon…
Big Data and Real-time Structured Data Analytics -…
5 Ways Predictive Analytics Impact Distribution
The “Right” Degree of Automation
A new IBM national survey of 30,000 U.S. consumers calls…

Note there are a few flakey ones in the lot. The last two were easy to spot (so I put them at the bottom of my list). The idea of course is to just take the average of the guesses.

Average all: 4932
Average all without 37 and 187932: 2626

Then I looked at the histogram and decided that the guesses close to 10000 were also too flaky to include:

So I removed all data points greater than 8000, which took away 2 samples, leaving this histogram and a mean of 2436.

So now for the outcome:
Actual Count: 2464
Average of trimmed sample: 2436 (error 28)
Best individual guess: 2500 (error 36)

So amazingly, the average won, though I wouldn’t have been disappointed at all if it finished 3rd or 4th because it still would have been a great guess.

Wisdom of Crowds wins again!

PS I reported to the insurance agents a guess of 2423 because I had omitted my original guess (provided before looking at any other guesses–2550 if you must know) and my co-worker’s guess of 3250, so these helped bring up the mean a bit. The Average would have lost (barely) if I had not included them.

PPS So how will they split the winnings since two guessed the same value? I won’t recommend the saw approach. I hope they ask each of the two guessers to either modify their guess, and require they modify their guess by at least one.

Share This Article
Facebook Pinterest LinkedIn
Share

Follow us on Facebook

Latest News

sales and data analytics
How Data Analytics Improves Lead Management and Sales Results
Analytics Big Data Exclusive
ai in marketing
How AI and Smart Platforms Improve Email Marketing
Artificial Intelligence Exclusive Marketing
AI Document Verification for Legal Firms: Importance & Top Tools
AI Document Verification for Legal Firms: Importance & Top Tools
Artificial Intelligence Exclusive
AI supply chain
AI Tools Are Strengthening Global Supply Chains
Artificial Intelligence Exclusive

Stay Connected

1.2kFollowersLike
33.7kFollowersFollow
222FollowersPin

You Might also Like

Alberto’s Business Analytics Predictions for 2012

6 Min Read

Predictive Analytics World

2 Min Read

Blogs are Dead!?! – Not Among Gen Y

3 Min Read

PASW 13 :The preview

3 Min Read

SmartData Collective is one of the largest & trusted community covering technical content about Big Data, BI, Cloud, Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, IoT & more.

ai is improving the safety of cars
From Bolts to Bots: How AI Is Fortifying the Automotive Industry
Artificial Intelligence
data-driven web design
5 Great Tips for Using Data Analytics for Website UX
Big Data

Quick Link

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy
Follow US
© 2008-25 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
Go to mobile version
Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Username or Email Address
Password

Lost your password?