Cookies help us display personalized product recommendations and ensure you have great shopping experience.

By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept
SmartData CollectiveSmartData Collective
  • Analytics
    AnalyticsShow More
    data analytics and truck accident claims
    How Data Analytics Reduces Truck Accidents and Speeds Up Claims
    7 Min Read
    predictive analytics for interior designers
    Interior Designers Boost Profits with Predictive Analytics
    8 Min Read
    image fx (67)
    Improving LinkedIn Ad Strategies with Data Analytics
    9 Min Read
    big data and remote work
    Data Helps Speech-Language Pathologists Deliver Better Results
    6 Min Read
    data driven insights
    How Data-Driven Insights Are Addressing Gaps in Patient Communication and Equity
    8 Min Read
  • Big Data
  • BI
  • Exclusive
  • IT
  • Marketing
  • Software
Search
© 2008-25 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
Reading: Of Black Swans and Taking Showers
Share
Notification
Font ResizerAa
SmartData CollectiveSmartData Collective
Font ResizerAa
Search
  • About
  • Help
  • Privacy
Follow US
© 2008-23 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
SmartData Collective > Data Management > Risk Management > Of Black Swans and Taking Showers
Risk Management

Of Black Swans and Taking Showers

paulbarsch
paulbarsch
4 Min Read
SHARE

Those pesky “Black Swans” – extremely low probability events with a large impact have been burned into the lexicon of just about every MBA.  With “Black Swan awareness” in mind, executives are counseled to be on the prowl for unlikely events that could potentially wipe out their headquarters, disrupt supply chains, bankrupt the company, or even lead to employee deaths. And while Black Swans are definitely reasons to seek safer ground, it’s inevitable the biggest risk is right under your nose!

Those pesky “Black Swans” – extremely low probability events with a large impact have been burned into the lexicon of just about every MBA.  With “Black Swan awareness” in mind, executives are counseled to be on the prowl for unlikely events that could potentially wipe out their headquarters, disrupt supply chains, bankrupt the company, or even lead to employee deaths. And while Black Swans are definitely reasons to seek safer ground, it’s inevitable the biggest risk is right under your nose!

Author Jared Diamond writes for the Weekend Financial Times about the importance of understanding everyday risks. In studies of New Guineans, he cites how jungle dwellers will refuse to camp out underneath a dead tree. That’s because even though the risk of such a tree falling on you is 1 in 1000; if one does enough camping under dead trees eventually it will lead to an untimely death. Diamond writes; “New Guineans have learnt from experience which are the real dangers in their lifestyle and they remain constantly alert to those dangers.”

Speaking of daily dangers, Diamond mentions for older adults, it’s more likely you’ll die slipping and falling in the shower, than in any horrific event your mind can conjure.

More Read

Image
The High Cost of Low Quality IT
Master Data Management: How to Avoid that ‘Pie in Your Face’ Moment
As the Internet of Things Mobilizes, Safeguarding the Cloud Is Our Prerogative
5 Essential Email Online Security Tips for Better Data Protection
The Quantified Self, Part I: Will it Lead to Better Data Management?

I blame the media for this over-estimation of extreme events. Simply open a newspaper and you’ll think the world is coming to an end. Fires, earthquakes, wars, pestilence and central bankers (yes, the inclusion of central bankers in “disasters” is intentional) are prominent.  With evidence of just your local paper or watching one hour of CNN, it’s easy to believe the world is filled with one extreme disaster after another.

And while Black Swans are definitely something to prepare for in terms of creating more robust or anti-fragile structures, it’s often daily events that are more likely to hurt us. Case in point, while dying in an airplane crash is a horrific way to check out (1:250,000 probability of death in a given year), it’s much more statistically likely that you’ll meet your maker traveling in a car to your local grocery store (1:5000).

So, yes, prepare as much as you can for extreme events.  Identify the “known knowns” for which you have probability theory to assist, the “known unknowns” where Bayes might help, and try to build robustness for the very infrequent Black Swan type “unknown unknowns”.  

But in all this, please pay attention to the risks closer to home, those dangers you might face every day. And watch out when taking a shower. That first step in, could be quite a doozy.

 

Share This Article
Facebook Pinterest LinkedIn
Share

Follow us on Facebook

Latest News

data analytics and truck accident claims
How Data Analytics Reduces Truck Accidents and Speeds Up Claims
Analytics Big Data Exclusive
predictive analytics for interior designers
Interior Designers Boost Profits with Predictive Analytics
Analytics Exclusive Predictive Analytics
big data and cybercrime
Stopping Lateral Movement in a Data-Heavy, Edge-First World
Big Data Exclusive
AI and data mining
What the Rise of AI Web Scrapers Means for Data Teams
Artificial Intelligence Big Data Exclusive

Stay Connected

1.2kFollowersLike
33.7kFollowersFollow
222FollowersPin

You Might also Like

High Density of Data Centers Correlate with Disaster Zones; Michigan Provides Safe Haven

5 Min Read

Recent Hacks Raise Questions Over Big Data Safety

3 Min Read
Image
AnalyticsCloud ComputingCommentaryData WarehousingExclusiveRisk Management

Building Information Technology Liquidity

4 Min Read

How to Get Started with Value Add Forecasting

6 Min Read

SmartData Collective is one of the largest & trusted community covering technical content about Big Data, BI, Cloud, Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, IoT & more.

ai is improving the safety of cars
From Bolts to Bots: How AI Is Fortifying the Automotive Industry
Artificial Intelligence
AI and chatbots
Chatbots and SEO: How Can Chatbots Improve Your SEO Ranking?
Artificial Intelligence Chatbots Exclusive

Quick Link

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy
Follow US
© 2008-25 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
Go to mobile version
Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Username or Email Address
Password

Lost your password?