By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept
SmartData Collective
  • Analytics
    AnalyticsShow More
    construction analytics
    5 Benefits of Analytics to Manage Commercial Construction
    5 Min Read
    benefits of data analytics for financial industry
    Fascinating Changes Data Analytics Brings to Finance
    7 Min Read
    analyzing big data for its quality and value
    Use this Strategic Approach to Maximize Your Data’s Value
    6 Min Read
    data-driven seo for product pages
    6 Tips for Using Data Analytics for Product Page SEO
    11 Min Read
    big data analytics in business
    5 Ways to Utilize Data Analytics to Grow Your Business
    6 Min Read
  • Big Data
  • BI
  • Exclusive
  • IT
  • Marketing
  • Software
Search
© 2008-23 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
Reading: A Game at Hell’s Gate
Share
Notification Show More
Latest News
cloud-centric companies using network relocation
Cloud-Centric Companies Discover Benefits & Pitfalls of Network Relocation
Cloud Computing
construction analytics
5 Benefits of Analytics to Manage Commercial Construction
Analytics
database compliance guide
Four Strategies For Effective Database Compliance
Data Management
Digital Security From Weaponized AI
Fortifying Enterprise Digital Security Against Hackers Weaponizing AI
Security
DevOps on cloud
Optimizing Cost with DevOps on the Cloud
Development
Aa
SmartData Collective
Aa
Search
  • About
  • Help
  • Privacy
Follow US
© 2008-23 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.
SmartData Collective > Analytics > Predictive Analytics > A Game at Hell’s Gate
Predictive Analytics

A Game at Hell’s Gate

Editor SDC
Last updated: 2009/03/01 at 11:03 PM
Editor SDC
6 Min Read
SHARE
- Advertisement -

Let’s say you lived the life of a gambler and now, dead, you are standing at the gates of hell with your two best friends who were also sinners. The devil, a lonely guy, lets you have the opportunity to go to heaven if you all play a game with him. This is his/her game:

Satan paints either a red or black (his fav. colors) dot on each of your foreheads so none of you can see your own dot’s color. You’re all required to sit in a triangle facing each other and you all are also telepathically denied from speaking, gesturing, or signaling to each other in any way. The only thing you can do is telepathically tell the devil what color you think you have on your own forehead. You may only guess one of three things: “red”, “black”, or “I don’t know”.
Depending on your three guesses, the devil will send you up to heaven. If anyone guesses incorrectly, you all go to hell. If all three of you guess “I don’t know”, you all go to hell. If all the guesses are either correct or “I don’t know”, then you all go to heaven.

- Advertisement -

Before the game starts, you and your friends are allowed to plan a guessing strategy which maximizes your odds of going to heaven.

For example, one strategy might be to have one of yo…

More Read

predictive analytics helps Albanian bitcoin investors

Albanian Bitcoin Investors Tap the Power of Predictive Analytics

Predictive Analytics Improves Trading Decisions as Euro Rebounds
Can Predictive Analytics Help Traders Navigate Bitcoin’s Volatility?
Perks of Predictive Analytics for Businesses Big and Small
How can CIOs Build Business Value with Business Analytics?


Let’s say you lived the life of a gambler and now, dead, you are standing at the gates of hell with your two best friends who were also sinners. The devil, a lonely guy, lets you have the opportunity to go to heaven if you all play a game with him. This is his/her game:

Satan paints either a red or black (his fav. colors) dot on each of your foreheads so none of you can see your own dot’s color. You’re all required to sit in a triangle facing each other and you all are also telepathically denied from speaking, gesturing, or signaling to each other in any way. The only thing you can do is telepathically tell the devil what color you think you have on your own forehead. You may only guess one of three things: “red”, “black”, or “I don’t know”.
Depending on your three guesses, the devil will send you up to heaven. If anyone guesses incorrectly, you all go to hell. If all three of you guess “I don’t know”, you all go to hell. If all the guesses are either correct or “I don’t know”, then you all go to heaven.

Before the game starts, you and your friends are allowed to plan a guessing strategy which maximizes your odds of going to heaven.

- Advertisement -

For example, one strategy might be to have one of you always guess “I don’t know” and the other two always guess red. In this case the outcomes would be as follows:
The eight rows are the eight combinations of possible dot arrangements; the final column is the outcome after satan evaluates your guesses. Green is heaven. With this strategy you and your friends will get into heaven 1/4 of the time.

Can you come up with a better strategy?

Can you come up with a strategy that gives you and your friends a better than 50% chance of getting into heaven?

Spoiler alert

It turns out there is a strategy that will get you into heaven 6/8=75% of the time. The trick behind it is really interesting, which I will explain after giving the strategy and results.

- Advertisement -

The strategy is: say I don’t know if the colors on your friends’ foreheads are different, and if they’re the same, guess the opposite color. The following gives the results in each scenario:
Make sure you understand why each person guessed as they did and that you understand the results in the last column.

If you look closely, you will see that each person individually is wrong half the time they guess. There is no way to get above 50% individually given that you know nothing about your own dot. The trick is that they all say the wrong thing at the same time. All three guessing wrong is no worse than just one wrong so aligning the incorrect guesses improved the odds of getting into heaven.

My question is if there is a way to create a trading strategy based on this “paradox”. Even if you cannot improve past 50% odds, can you make it so that when you are wrong it is redundant and therefore irrelevant?

One interesting extension my professor hinted at was that the strategy can be modified to work for groups larger than 3 and that with a larger group the odds of getting into heaven approaches 100%.

Editor SDC March 1, 2009
Share this Article
Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn
Share
- Advertisement -

Follow us on Facebook

Latest News

cloud-centric companies using network relocation
Cloud-Centric Companies Discover Benefits & Pitfalls of Network Relocation
Cloud Computing
construction analytics
5 Benefits of Analytics to Manage Commercial Construction
Analytics
database compliance guide
Four Strategies For Effective Database Compliance
Data Management
Digital Security From Weaponized AI
Fortifying Enterprise Digital Security Against Hackers Weaponizing AI
Security

Stay Connected

1.2k Followers Like
33.7k Followers Follow
222 Followers Pin

You Might also Like

predictive analytics helps Albanian bitcoin investors
Blockchain

Albanian Bitcoin Investors Tap the Power of Predictive Analytics

9 Min Read
benefits of data analytics for financial management
Predictive Analytics

Predictive Analytics Improves Trading Decisions as Euro Rebounds

10 Min Read
predictive analytics can help bitcoin traders predict future price movements
Blockchain

Can Predictive Analytics Help Traders Navigate Bitcoin’s Volatility?

8 Min Read
predictive analytics
Predictive Analytics

Perks of Predictive Analytics for Businesses Big and Small

6 Min Read

SmartData Collective is one of the largest & trusted community covering technical content about Big Data, BI, Cloud, Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, IoT & more.

ai in ecommerce
Artificial Intelligence for eCommerce: A Closer Look
Artificial Intelligence
AI and chatbots
Chatbots and SEO: How Can Chatbots Improve Your SEO Ranking?
Artificial Intelligence Chatbots Exclusive

Quick Link

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy
Follow US

© 2008-23 SmartData Collective. All Rights Reserved.

Removed from reading list

Undo
Go to mobile version
Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Lost your password?