Rich voters, poor voters, and the 2008 election

March 5, 2009
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Andrew Gelman, guest-blogging at fivethirtyeight.com, uses survey data from before the 2008 US presidential election to ask the question: which states would have been won for John McCain if only rich voter’s votes counted? (Answer: most of them, except mainly for California and New England.) By contrast, if only the votes of poor voters counted, Obama would have had almost a clean sweep. You can see the R code used for the hierarchical random-effects model (using the glmer function from lme4) at his blog.Update Mar 4: Updated maps from Andrew’s post.Andrew Gelman: How went the 2008 election?

Andrew Gelman, guest-blogging at fivethirtyeight.com, uses survey data from before the 2008 US presidential election to ask the question: which states would have been won for John McCain if only rich voter's votes counted?  (Answer: most of them, except mainly for California and New England.) By contrast, if only the votes of poor voters counted, Obama would have had almost a clean sweep.  You can see the R code used for the hierarchical random-effects model (using the glmer function from lme4) at his blog.

Update Mar 4: Updated maps from Andrew's post.